Sweden's forestry

Weak consumer demand, the imposition of U.S. tariffs, and growing policy uncertainty have collectively driven business confidence down to its lowest point in five years.

Sweden’s forest industry is currently experiencing its most significant decline in over five years, with confidence levels within the sector reaching their lowest point since the onset of the pandemic. This downturn is attributed to a decrease in global demand and the impact of trade barriers.

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The forestry subindex of the Green Business Index, issued by the Federation of Swedish Farmers (LRF), experienced a decline of 19 points in the fourth quarter, reaching a value of 97.6. This marks its lowest level since spring 2020 and highlights the increasing pressures faced throughout Sweden’s supply chain, affecting stakeholders from sawmills and pulp producers to landowners.

Sweden’s export activities in the forest products sector exceed US $18 billion (approximately SEK 180 billion), with 66% of these exports being directed to the European Union. Recent analyses by Wood Central indicate that diminishing export demand, decreasing prices for sawn wood and pulp, and a weakened U.S. dollar have all contributed to a reduction in revenues. The introduction of new tariffs on Swedish wood products destined for the United States, in conjunction with a slowing global economy, has further constrained profitability in this sector.

Weaker export demand, declining prices for sawn wood and pulp, and a depreciating U.S. dollar have negatively impacted revenues within the sector. Additionally, the implementation of new tariffs on Swedish wood products destined for the United States, in conjunction with a decelerating global economy, has further constrained profitability.

The Swedish Forest Industries Federation has indicated that forestry companies are encountering a challenging environment, as elevated costs and diminished demand significantly affect sawmills, pulp manufacturers, and paper producers.

Recent data indicate that the area designated for final felling declined by 8 percent in September and 4 percent in October compared to the same period last year. The Land Resource Forum (LRF) has attributed this decline, in part, to uncertainty surrounding new restrictions on forest utilization, which has adversely affected the confidence of landowners. Additionally, the Green Business Index, which monitors sentiment across Sweden’s agricultural sectors, has experienced a downturn, decreasing from 106.5 in the previous quarter to 100.7. While crop farming has exhibited signs of pressure, forestry has recorded the most significant decline.

Forestry is a fundamental component of Sweden’s economy, encompassing nearly 70 percent of the nation’s land area and providing employment to over 100,000 individuals. Despite this significance, the industry is currently experiencing the lowest level of confidence in five years. Industry leaders have expressed concerns that, in the absence of policy stability and enhanced market conditions, forest owners may be compelled to reduce their operations. The Forest Industries Federation has

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indicated that increased trade barriers are generating uncertainty within the sector, further exacerbating the pressures on profitability throughout the supply chain.

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