The global roundwood softwood market is facing a range of challenges, with projections indicating an annual growth rate of only about 0.5% through 2035, which is below expectations.
The Global Softwood Roundwood Supply Outlook anticipates a modest annual growth rate of approximately 0.5% in softwood supply leading up to 2035. This forecasted growth falls short of the anticipated demand increase, mainly because regional limitations hinder the ability to ramp up production. As a result, supply constraints may make it harder to meet future market needs.
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That’s a remarkable amount of work hours for a single machine, the Norcar 600 owned by Erkki Rinne is taken well care of, it even has the original Diesel engine.
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Kieran Anders is a forestry contractor working in the lake district. His work involves hand cutting and extracting timber using a skidder and tractor-trailer forwarder.
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It is not possible to eliminate chain shot, but there are simple steps that can be taken to reduce the risk.
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Arwel takes great pride in the fact that the mill has no waste whatsoever, “the peelings are used for children’s playgrounds, gardens and for farm animals in barns in the winter and the sawdust has multiple uses in gardens and farms as well.
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Timber hauliers need to encourage young blood in, and also look after the hauliers we have, we need make the sector a safe and positive place to work.
FIND US ON
The findings from Håkan Ekström of Global Wood Trends and Glen O’Kelly of O’Kelly Acumen are in a four-part market report covering North America; Europe and Russia; Latin America, Asia and Oceania; and the global market. The reports examine potential sources of future softwood supply and the factors that could limit growth.
Softwood roundwood supply has remained broadly flat since 2000, despite continued growth in overall roundwood production. Meanwhile, demand for construction timber, packaging and biomass is expected to increase, putting further pressure on the availability and real prices of softwood logs.
The global outlook varies significantly between regions.
Softwood roundwood supply in 2025 was close to its 25-year average, following a sharp fall from its all-time high in 2021. Since 2000, North American supply has declined by almost 20%, while Europe, Russia, and the rest of the world have each increased by about 18%.
The regions that have driven supply growth, however, face different prospects over the next decade.
A look at the five regions
The US South has the greatest potential to increase softwood roundwood supply. Timber resources remain abundant and harvesting is below biological growth, but labour shortages, infrastructure constraints and the investment required to expand production are expected to limit the pace of growth.
In Canada, several years of declining harvests, particularly in British Columbia, are expected to give way to stabilisation and modest recovery. Supply is unlikely to return to previous levels, however.
Europe faces tighter constraints. Many forests are already being harvested close to sustainable biological limits, while sustainability policies, forest protection measures and climate-related damage are restricting further growth.
The base scenario points to little overall change in European supply, with declines in Central Europe and the Baltics offset by growth elsewhere, particularly in the Nordic region.
Russia has substantial underused softwood resources, but much of this potential is unlikely to translate into additional supply. Political risks, market-access restrictions, infrastructure limitations and investment requirements are expected to keep significant volumes untapped.
In Latin America and Asia-Pacific, plantation forestry remains competitive, but the area devoted to softwood plantations has changed little over the past decade. Investment has increasingly shifted towards hardwood plantations, while investment in softwood plantations has remained broadly unchanged.
Productivity gains are expected to support modest growth in softwood supply, rather than a major expansion. In Japan and New Zealand, lower availability is largely linked to uneven age-class structures in plantations.
Trade flows set to change
Demand will remain an important driver of the market. US housing, European construction and China’s property market are expected to support sawlog demand, while greater substitution of hardwood species and recycled fibre in pulp and wood-based panels could change demand for different softwood log grades.
China could become an example of how tighter supply affects trade flows. As log availability in Asia-Pacific becomes more constrained and Chinese sawmilling costs increase, the country is likely to import more lumber instead of logs.
Climate change and geopolitical developments add further uncertainty. Insects, storms, drought and wildfire could affect forest growth and salvage harvesting, while changes in international relations could redirect trade flows.
Carbon policies are expected to have a more limited impact on commercial softwood supply.
A tighter global market
The outlook suggests that global softwood supply can continue to grow, but only modestly. The issue is not simply how much timber exists in the world’s forests, but how much can be harvested, processed and delivered competitively to the markets that need it.
As regional resources become more constrained, accessible and competitively priced softwood logs are likely to become harder to source through 2035.
Source: panelsfurnitureasia.com
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